Since the Supreme Court’s decision in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization in June 2022, the Republican Party has distanced itself from its strong pro-life stance. The current platform does not advocate for federal abortion restrictions, and former President Donald Trump has described six-week bans as “too severe.” In response, some pro-life Republicans have considered withholding their votes this year, but that could be a misstep.
It’s clear why GOP leaders are wary. Pro-life measures faced seven defeats on state ballots in 2022 and 2023, even in conservative states like Ohio and Kansas. When abortion is the sole issue up for a vote, pro-life initiatives struggle.
However, these same voters have still elected pro-life candidates. In the 2022 midterms, Republican Governors Mike DeWine of Ohio, Brian Kemp of Georgia, Ron DeSantis of Florida, and Greg Abbott of Texas won major reelection victories after endorsing six-week abortion bans.
This suggests that preserving state-level abortion restrictions is possible as long as they remain shielded from direct democracy and potential federal codification of Roe v. Wade. This should be reason enough for pro-life supporters to consider voting for Trump.
Three maps illustrate the current state of abortion restrictions: one shows existing restrictions, another highlights states with abortion on the ballot in 2024, with some initiatives led by citizens and others by Democratic-controlled legislatures.
Each of the 2024 ballot measures would legalize abortion up to birth. Maryland, New York, and Colorado do so without reservation, while the others include a “maternal health” exemption after viability, which could be interpreted to include conditions as minor as anxiety. It’s likely that all these measures will receive majority support, with Florida’s as the only potential exception. Florida’s measure requires a 60 percent supermajority to pass, and current polling shows it right at the 60 percent mark. For comparison, Ohio’s recent amendment passed with 56.8 percent of the vote, and Michigan’s passed with 56.7 percent.
This is where the third map becomes relevant. When compared to the first map, you’ll see there are 11 states with either total or six-week abortion bans and no option for citizen-initiated ballot measures.
Even if voters overturn abortion bans in every state where it’s possible, abortion would still remain illegal in Alabama, Georgia, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi (where state courts have ruled out the amendment referendum process), South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, and West Virginia.
North Carolina also deserves mention, as its more moderate 12-week ban still restricts approximately 10 percent of abortions.
This leaves over 75 million Americans living under abortion bans (plus an additional 10 million if North Carolina is included, and another 22 million if Florida’s amendment fails). Many of these states are large and clustered together, creating a significant “abortion desert.” For many women, traveling to a state with accessible abortion services is costly and challenging.
These bans have already saved tens of thousands of babies, and preserving them requires a defensive political strategy for pro-life advocates moving forward.
At the state level, this means ensuring GOP control over the courts, legislatures, and executive branches in those 12 states. Achieving this involves strengthening state-level political structures and maintaining firm control over legislative districting.
It also requires decisively opposing any Republican candidate or officeholder who might undermine state abortion bans. While it may be difficult to secure a pro-life majority in a statewide referendum, winning in a GOP primary is within reach.
It’s also notable that between 2014 and 2020, voters in Tennessee, West Virginia, Alabama, and Louisiana approved legislatively initiated ballot measures affirming that their state constitutions do not protect abortion rights. There’s a chance that the post-Dobbs “Handmaid’s Tale” alarm may fade, and strong pro-life majorities could eventually re-emerge in red states.
At the federal level, this defensive strategy unfortunately means leaving abortion policy to the states for now. It’s frustrating to hear Trump and his running mate, J.D. Vance, discuss vetoing a federal abortion ban. But when the alternative is losing the election and seeing President Kamala Harris dismantle the filibuster to legalize abortion nationwide up to birth, I’m willing to accept it.
If Trump wins in November, at a minimum, those 12 state-level bans will remain intact. It may not be the comprehensive pro-life victory hoped for, but it’s worth defending. If Harris wins, half a century of progress on this issue is at risk.
