President-elect Donald Trump will face a new crisis in Syria, as a fresh faction has overthrown Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s 24-year regime, paving the way for another potentially prolonged conflict.
The al-Assad regime collapsed on Saturday after rebels, led by the Islamic group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), captured Syria’s capital, Damascus, ending a bloody war that had raged since 2011.
However, the risk of clashes among rival rebel factions, combined with ongoing Israeli, Russian, and U.S. operations in the region, creates a highly volatile situation. This poses a significant foreign policy challenge for the incoming Trump-Vance administration from day one.
“It’s a wickedly complex situation that definitely has a lot of U.S. interest,” Brent Sadler, senior research fellow for the Allison Center for National Security at the Heritage Foundation, told the Daily Caller News Foundation. “I think that’s the first thing to acknowledge upfront is [that] it doesn’t necessarily mean we have to be more militarily engaged than we are already, but at the same time signaling readiness to reward those that share our interests and values, and to punish those who don’t. It’s the early days, quite frankly, to know exactly how the power situation is going to play out in Syria.”
Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) was designated a foreign terrorist organization by the U.S. in 2018 during the Trump administration, according to the Office of the Director of National Intelligence. The group was formed in 2017 when Abu Muhammad al-Jawlani, the former leader of al-Qaeda’s Syrian branch, broke away from the organization due to strategic disagreements.
Al-Jawlani, who was previously detained by U.S. forces during the Iraq invasion, was released in 2011, according to The Wall Street Journal. While he has reportedly expressed moderate views on allowing minorities, such as Christians, to remain in Syria, concerns persist about his ultimate intentions on the matter.
“At some point back in 2018 to 2019, al-Jawlani makes a break from the ideology of ISIS and certainly al-Qaeda, because I think he realized there is no way to unify the Syrian people to topple Assad’s regime without moderating their very radical Salafist ideology,” Sadler told the DCNF. “They’re still Islamist, but I think they’re trying to moderate themselves for very pragmatic reasons.”
The two other major factions in Syria, apart from HTS, are the U.S.-backed Kurdish Syrian Defense Force (SDF) and the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA).
The SNA was established in 2017 from various rebel groups in northern Syria to oppose both the Assad regime and HTS, according to Middle East Eye. However, following HTS’s capture of Aleppo, the SNA joined the group in its recent offensive, Reuters reported.
In the aftermath of Assad’s collapse, the SNA is also clashing with the SDF, according to the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD).
Amid HTS’s rise and the region’s increasing instability, Trump stated on Truth Social Saturday that he prefers the U.S. remain uninvolved in Syria for now, arguing there is little to gain from direct engagement at this time.
“What the Trump administration needs to think about is, ‘where in this does U.S. interest lie? How do we influence what’s happening there to our advantage?’” Simone Ledeen, former deputy assistant secretary of defense for the Middle East, told the DCNF. “Also, it’s important to note we have troops on the ground in Syria, and they’ve been taking fire for the last four years. What’s our desired strategic end-state in Syria? What do we need them to accomplish, besides taking fire from Iranian proxies?”
The U.S. operates the al-Tanf military base in southern Syria, which has served as a hub for operations against ISIS since 2016, according to the Council on Foreign Relations. During Assad’s regime, the U.S. maintained the base despite his opposition.
Currently, there are 900 U.S. troops stationed in Syria, according to the Pentagon. While Trump campaigned on ending “forever wars,” his 2018 attempt to withdraw troops from Syria faced significant resistance from bipartisan foreign policy hawks. As a result, some U.S. forces remained in the country, primarily for anti-ISIS missions, Politico reported.
Israel has capitalized on the instability, taking control of strategic areas in the Golan Heights region in southern Syria, according to The Washington Post. These positions now place Damascus within Israeli artillery range, Sadler told the DCNF. On Sunday, the U.S., in coordination with Israel, conducted strikes targeting ISIS.
In Damascus, rebels have appointed Mohamed al-Bashir, a former HTS opposition government member, as interim prime minister to promote unity among rebel factions, Reuters reported Tuesday. John Hardie, deputy director of the Russia program at the FDD, told the DCNF that Trump should remain engaged enough to collaborate with whoever ultimately assumes control in the region.
“I think the next administration and their allies are really going to have to resist the temptation just to kind of watch from the sidelines,” Hardie told the DCNF. “We’re going to have to play an active role. I think our very small economy-of-force military presence we have in eastern Syria is a good thing for keeping a lid on ISIS. And I would hope that the next administration will kind of work hard with the actors who are coming to power, whatever that new government looks like.”
Although the fall of Assad significantly weakened Russia’s influence in Syria, Trump will still need to contend with their remaining footholds while working to broker peace in Ukraine.
Russia’s primary leverage in the region lies with the Alawite population along Syria’s western coast, home to the strategically important Tartous Naval Base—Russia’s only port on the Mediterranean. The Alawites, a historically pro-Assad faction, supported his regime throughout much of the civil war, according to Reuters.
“Watch the Russians and watch Latakia,” Sadler told the DCNF. “If the Russians think they have a chance of reconstituting any influence, it’s probably going to be in and around their bases in Latakia. And again, that’s the Alawites, so if there’s any hope of that, that’s where it’s going to be.”
Hardie believes that with Assad no longer in power, Russia’s best chance to restore its influence in the region is by collaborating with the rebel factions.
“The Kremlin is certainly trying to now play nice with these groups, especially HTS,” Hardie told the DCNF. “You may have seen that just a few days ago, were calling them terrorists, and [Russian Foreign Minister Sergei] Lavrov was sort of chiding journalists for calling them ‘opposition’ rather than ‘terrorists,’ and saying they should never be allowed to. Now they’re saying they will engage with all parties, and the Russian state is calling them ‘armed opposition.’”
Secretary of State Antony Blinken stated in a Tuesday press release that he would support a Syrian government committed to respecting minorities, opposing terrorism, prohibiting the use of chemical and biological weapons, and facilitating humanitarian aid.
“We continue to monitor the situation in Syria. President Trump is committed to diminishing threats to peace and stability in the Middle East and to protecting Americans here at home,” Trump-Vance Transition Spokesman Brian Hughes told the DCNF Wednesday.
