Former President Donald Trump has nearly closed the gap with Vice President Kamala Harris in New Hampshire, a state that hasn’t supported a Republican candidate in a presidential election since 2000.
A recent Emerson College Polling/WHDH survey, conducted from October 21-23, shows Harris leading by just three points, with 50% of likely voters backing her and 47% supporting Trump. Third-party candidates received 2% of the support, while 1% of voters remain undecided.
This close race signals unexpected competitiveness in a state President Joe Biden won by over 7% in 2020. The poll also reveals a shift among male voters favoring Trump, while Harris maintains strong support from female voters, reflecting Biden’s previous performance.
“Harris’ margin among women is similar to that of Biden in 2020 — however, male voters have shifted about two points toward Trump,” said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling. “Additionally, Harris is underperforming Biden’s 2020 support among independent voters, who favor Harris by 13 points, compared to Biden’s stronger advantage among independents in the last election.”
Economic concerns are a top priority for New Hampshire voters, with 34% identifying the economy as their main issue, followed by 26% focused on housing affordability. Trump’s emphasis on financial recovery and job creation may resonate with these concerns, while Harris faces the task of addressing economic worries to strengthen her support in the state.
Recent polls also indicate challenges for Harris, including a close contest for Arab American support. An Arab News/YouGov poll shows Trump with a slight lead among this group, at 45% to Harris’s 43%. Harris’s team is reportedly concerned about her standing in key swing states like Michigan, where Arab American and Muslim voters could play a decisive role.
With less than two weeks to Election Day, Trump has gained a narrow lead nationwide, with a 47% to 45% advantage over Harris in a Wall Street Journal poll released Thursday. This marks a shift since August, when Harris was ahead, now bringing the race within the margin of error.
