If the former president secures Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Georgia, he will return to the White House.
PHILADELPHIA — The presidential election will essentially hinge on three states: Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Georgia.
If Vice President Kamala Harris fails to win Pennsylvania, her only chance lies in a Southern strategy, requiring her to capture either Georgia or North Carolina. Without these victories, her path to the White House narrows significantly. The election results could be largely decided when polls close in the Eastern time zone, pending the final ballot counts.
This doesn’t diminish the importance of the other battlegrounds — Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada, and Arizona. If Harris loses Pennsylvania, which her team acknowledges is a tough state, she must secure one of the two Western states along with one of the two Southern states, assuming she also wins Michigan and Wisconsin.
However, if Trump can prevent her from winning in Pennsylvania, Georgia, and North Carolina, the other battlegrounds become less relevant.
This strategy highlights the advantage the Electoral College can offer Republicans. If Trump wins Pennsylvania, a state President Joe Biden narrowly carried by around 80,000 votes and where he spent much of his childhood, Harris’s chances will then depend on two slightly right-leaning states that Democrats have only managed to win once this century: North Carolina (which Obama won in 2008) and Georgia, which aligned with Biden in 2020.
“It comes down to seven battleground states, you got to win four of them in order to carry it,” Republican National Committee Chair Michael Whatley told me. “Except if you win Georgia, North Carolina and Pennsylvania, then that’s going to get you over the hump.”
Trump’s television advertising highlights his emphasis on these three states. He has invested the most in Pennsylvania, which is crucial due to its six media markets, and the second most in Georgia. Recently, he allocated $17 million to North Carolina, a state where his advertising efforts had been limited earlier in the campaign.
“With big reservations coming in for North Carolina, I’d be surprised if there wasn’t a big reservation coming in next from one of the Trump super PACs,” said Kurt Pickhardt, a GOP media consultant citing data from National Media Insights, a Republican-aligned media intelligence agency. “He’s trying to block off her Southern route.”
Harris’s strategists are well aware of Trump’s strategy.
“From inference you can see where they’re thinking their bread is buttered,” said Quentin Fulks, the vice president’s deputy campaign manager.
If Trump’s best chance to wall off Harris from 270 electoral votes is clear enough to both campaigns, it’s also not lost on them that the vice president at least has more options than Biden. Before ending his campaign in July, the president was almost certainly was going to depend on a Great Lakes-only strategy, his hopes hinging on being able to retain Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. Harris, though, has an insurance policy in the South. And she may need it: Trump’s polling, at least before last week’s debate, has consistently had him leading Harris in Pennsylvania, even when the modeling was tilted toward what one Republican called the campaign’s “worst-case scenario.”
Democratic internal polling clearly indicates why Pennsylvania is the toughest of the Great Lakes states for them. A survey conducted earlier this month in Rep. Susan Wild’s (D-Pa.) Lehigh Valley district, one of the state’s most competitive areas, showed Harris trailing by just one point.
However, a narrow loss in Pennsylvania might not be decisive if Harris can connect with two critical demographics in the Southern states: Black men and moderate Republicans.
It was strategic during last week’s debate for Harris to highlight three instances of Trump’s race-baiting after previously dismissing his crude attacks on her racial identity. She aims to reduce Trump’s appeal among Black men, which, while modest, is essential, and to push his overall support among Black voters down to the single digits.
Additionally, there was a reason former Rep. Liz Cheney chose Duke University in North Carolina to announce her support for Harris. The campaign is investing heavily in reaching “soft Republicans,” those former George W. Bush voters who are uneasy about Trump but hesitant to back a Democrat they don’t know well.
As has often been the case since his rise in politics, Trump is inadvertently aiding his opponents in these two Southern states.
Trump’s anger toward Brian Kemp, Georgia’s popular Republican governor, remains unresolved, and efforts by intermediaries have not fully alleviated the tensions. Notably, Trump has not returned to Georgia since August 3, when he used an Atlanta rally to criticize Kemp, angering local Republicans.
This situation has raised concerns among party officials, and Kemp’s allies are seeking more support from Trump. However, they were encouraged by Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio), Trump’s running mate, who praised Kemp during a joint appearance in Georgia at an event hosted by longtime Republican organizer Ralph Reed.
Former Vice President Mike Pence often sought to appease the Republicans Trump clashed with, but it had little effect on Trump’s behavior.
Many Georgia Republicans are now questioning the outcome in Cobb County. This historically Republican but increasingly Democratic area voted differently in the 2022 elections. Will Harris perform more like Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-Ga.), who won Cobb by 17 points, or Stacey Abrams, who only narrowly defeated Kemp by five points? The results could be pivotal for Georgia.
In North Carolina, Trump has complicated his own chances by promoting a gubernatorial candidate, Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson, who mirrors his bombastic style. Robinson’s numerous controversial remarks, especially about women, have North Carolina Democrats optimistic about mobilizing moderate voters to lean Democratic.
Given Vance’s controversial comments about “childless cat ladies,” it seems as if the leading Republican candidates were tailored to alienate female voters, making North Carolina a more viable target for Democrats.
Harris’s team has grown optimistic about North Carolina, viewing it as nearly as winnable as Georgia, despite its smaller Black voter population. However, seasoned North Carolina Democrats remain cautious, having witnessed many promising presidential and Senate races fall narrowly short since 2008.
As one top Tar Heel Democrat put it to me: “I like her momentum, but he’s got the fundamentals.”
Yet, as Vance said last weekend when he dipped into Greenville for an East Carolina football game, “It’s very hard for us to win unless we’re able to get North Carolina.”
