On Tuesday, Democratic strategists and a former special counsel for Donald Trump’s impeachment trial argued that a conviction of the ex-president could notably boost Joe Biden in a potential 2024 election showdown. Despite recent surveys favoring Trump in a hypothetical matchup against Biden, sentiments among voters shift when contemplating the ramifications of a potential Trump conviction.
According to Norman Eisen, Celinda Lake, and Anat Shenker-Osorio in The New York Times, ongoing criminal cases against Trump might cast a negative shadow on his candidacy, potentially altering voters’ perceptions of his threat to the nation.
“Again, this is all hypothetical, but the polls give us sufficient data to conclude that felony criminal convictions, especially for attacking democracy, will foreground the threat that Mr. Trump poses to our nation and influence voters in an election-defining way,” they wrote.
While a Wall Street Journal poll showcased Trump leading by four points, a potential conviction could tip the scales in Biden’s favor, with him leading 47% to 46%. Similarly, a Yahoo News-YouGov survey positioned Biden ahead at 46% to 39% if Trump faced a serious crime conviction.
Eisen, former Biden campaign pollster Lake, and advisor Shenker-Osorio emphasized Americans’ concerns about safeguarding their freedoms, particularly the right to vote and ensure its legitimacy. They highlighted the unease associated with entrusting presidential authority to someone involved in a criminal conspiracy jeopardizing these freedoms.
The strategists also suggested a potentially heightened impact in swing states, referencing an October Times/Siena poll that indicated Trump’s lead in pivotal states like Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, and Pennsylvania, with Biden narrowly winning in Wisconsin.
In the event of Trump’s conviction, the poll suggests Biden would emerge victorious in each of these states.
Simultaneously, Special Counsel Jack Smith is advocating for Trump’s trial on March 4, aiming to maintain deadlines suspended by the district judge and urging the Supreme Court to address Trump’s immunity appeal before the D.C. Circuit could review it.
However, the justices declined expedited consideration of the matter last Friday. The D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals is set to begin oral arguments for Trump’s appeal on January 9.
