The most recent Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey reveals that former President Donald Trump is ahead of President Joe Biden in the pivotal swing state of Pennsylvania.
Over the last few months, the survey has been monitoring the potential, increasingly probable, match-up between Trump and Biden in the Keystone State.
Trump has consistently held an advantage over the past three months. He led Biden by three points in November, seven points in January, and two points in February, with 45 percent to Biden’s 43 percent.
Notably, Trump’s lead widens even further when compared to Vice President Kamala Harris, with a nine-point lead, or 49 percent to her 40 percent.
📊 PENNSYLVANIA POLL: Emerson
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) February 20, 2024
Trump 45% (+2)
Biden 43%
—
Trump 42% (+5)
Biden 37%
RFK Jr 8%
West 2%
Stein 1%
—
Trump 49% (+9)
Harris 40%
—
Trump 48% (+15)
Newsom 33%
—
Senate
Casey (D-Inc) 49% (+10)
McCormick (R) 39%
—
R41/D40 | 1,000 RV | 2/14-16https://t.co/XtMPFvYQbl pic.twitter.com/j2H1fAcmpS
However, the survey also revealed that Trump’s lead increases when independent candidates are included. In this scenario, Trump garners 42 percent support, while Biden receives 37 percent. Another eight percent of respondents favor independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., two percent support Cornel West, and one percent back Jill Stein. Overall, 12 percent of respondents remain undecided.
Moreover, the survey found that independents favor Biden by a margin of six points, 41 percent to Trump’s 35 percent. However, according to Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, “men tend to support Trump over Biden by 50% to 41%, while women slightly favor Biden over Trump, 44% to 42%.”
In addition, the survey revealed that a significant portion of Pennsylvanians identified the economy as their primary concern (40 percent), while 11 percent mentioned healthcare and another 11 percent cited immigration.
Conducted from February 14-16, 2024, among 1,000 registered voters, the Pennsylvania survey has a margin of error of +/- 3 percent. It aligns with several other state-level polls, all indicating a similar trend: Trump outperforming Biden in crucial swing states.
For instance, a Bloomberg News/Morning Consult survey released several weeks ago showed Trump leading Biden in all seven swing states, including Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
