The individual dubbed the “Nostradamus” for accurately forecasting the outcomes of multiple presidential elections has offered a major hint about his prediction for the upcoming November election.
During a YouTube livestream on Thursday, historian Allan Lichtman revealed that he is nearing the completion of his “final prediction.”
“You don’t have to be patient for a whole lot longer. Enjoy your Labor Day weekend … and within days after that the prediction should be out. And this will be a final prediction” he said.
Though he kept his overall forecast under wraps, he dropped a significant hint by criticizing rival pollster Nate Silver, who recently expressed that former President Donald Trump is his preferred candidate.
“I just saw today the most absurd prediction,” Lichtman said about Silver. “Just a few days ago, he said the probability is that Kamala Harris is going to win the election. Now, just a few days later he switched.”
His primary issue with Silver’s latest prediction is that it lacks “real probability.”
“If you flipped a coin a million times, it would converge on 50 percent heads and 50 percent tails,” said Lichtman. “But you can’t play the election a million times, you can only play the election once and in fact, you haven’t even played it at all since no one has voted. So he just fabricated this probability from the polls.”
He also pointed out that Silver had predicted former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton would likely defeat Trump in the 2016 election.
After Trump’s victory over Clinton, Silver had assigned Trump a 30 percent chance of winning, a higher estimate than most other sources, according to the Daily Mail.
Lichtman disagreed with Silver’s assessment.
“The predictions mean nothing because he disavows them if he’s wrong and trumpets them if he’s right,” he said.
He also disagreed with Silver’s probability of Trump winning, which Silver had estimated at 52.4 percent.
“Is it possible, Sam, to measure the probability of a Trump victory down to the tenths of a percent?’ he asked figuratively.
“It makes it look scientific. It makes it look real. It makes it look ‘my God this guy is very precise.’ In fact, it is exactly the opposite of precision.”
Lichtman observed that before President Joe Biden announced his exit from the race, it would take a lot for him to lose the election. He also warned that it would be a “huge mistake” for Democrats to replace him.
Lichtman further stated that Trump’s 34 felony convictions would not affect the outcome of the election.
Of the last 10 elections, Lichtman has accurately predicted nine. His first successful prediction was Ronald Reagan’s win in 1984. He also correctly forecasted Trump’s victory in 2016 and his defeat by Biden in 2020.
