Recent polling data from Minnesota indicates that former President Donald Trump is narrowing the gap with President Joe Biden. Yes, Minnesota, historically a stronghold for Democrats, has become a swing state. According to a KSTP-TV/SurveyUSA poll, Biden leads Trump by just four points, with 42% to 38% respectively. The remaining 11% are undecided, while nine percent support other candidates.
“We’ve got a competitive race here,” Steven Schier, a political analyst at Carleton College, told the pollster. Biden “is at 42% … against Trump, but his job approval is also at 42%. The question is, is that the ceiling for Joe Biden? If it is, then that’s good news for Donald Trump.”
“A lot of independents don’t want to vote for either of these people, which means there’s a lot of voters up in the air, and this election could go either way,” Schier added. You have two people who have occupied the White House for multiple years, yet you have 1 in 10 Minnesota voters who are undecided.” He concluded that “a lot of people are not enthusiastic about this choice.”
In the heavily Democratic Twin Cities, Biden maintains an 18-point lead over Trump, with 48% to 30% respectively, yet he falls short of reaching the 50% mark in this traditionally solid Democratic stronghold. However, outside of this area, Trump holds the lead over Biden: “Trump leads 45% to 37% in southern Minnesota; 57% to 26% in western Minnesota, and 51% to 33% in northeastern Minnesota,” as reported by the pollster.
The pollster conducted a survey of 1,603 likely voters from February 23 to 28, with a margin of error of three percent.
It’s worth noting that this poll aligns with other recent polls. According to the RealClearPolitics average of Minnesota polls, Biden leads by only three points, with 42.3% to 39.3%.
In the 2020 election, Biden allegedly won Minnesota by 7.2 points, with 52.6% to 45.4% against Trump. However, in 2016, Trump came within 1.5 points of Hillary Clinton, with 46.4% to 44.9%.
Questions about Biden’s support ceiling in Minnesota arise, particularly after the recent Super Tuesday results, where “uncommitted” captured 19% of the vote in the state’s Democratic primary. Even left-leaning outlets like the Daily Beast are concerned about this trend.
“Why Minnesota’s ‘Uncommitted’ Vote Is a Real Threat to Biden’s Re-Election,” headlined the article from J. Patrick Coolican.
“Despite no money and a bare-bones, last-minute organization, the ‘Uncommitted’ line pulled nearly 19 percent, as progressive voters sought to send a message to Biden that he needs to change his policy toward Israel and its ongoing war in Gaza if he’s to earn their vote,” wrote Coolican.
This embarrassment occurred shortly after over 100,000 voters chose “uncommitted” in the Michigan Democratic primary, resulting in two delegates being awarded to the uncommitted faction, which garnered 13.2 percent of the vote.
One certainty emerging from the polls is that Joe Biden, characterized as tired, old, mean, and frail, will be compelled to protect an electoral map that Trump has expanded. Just a year ago, the notion of Biden having to defend states like Minnesota, Nevada, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin seemed unimaginable.
