MSNBC national affairs analyst John Heilemann stated on Tuesday that Vice President Kamala Harris had legitimate reasons to feel “panicked” about the upcoming election.
According to a recent NBC News poll, Harris and former President Donald Trump are tied at 48%. Additionally, a New York Times poll indicated that Harris is only securing 56% of Hispanic voters. Heilemann emphasized that Democrats have “good reason” to be worried about Harris’ electoral prospects.
“I think there’s some PTSD, not just from 2016 but even 2020, where the polling miss in 2020 was bigger than the polling miss in 2016, comprehensively. Joe Biden was supposedly up by these large amounts, and we saw basically a four-point polling swing, polling miss across the battleground states,” Heilemann told “Morning Joe” co-host Willie Geist. “So there’s a lot of PTSD. I try to, in this piece, try to go through and say, hey, there are some reasons why Democrats — there is a case for panic.”
“There’s a case — there’s data out there that should alarm Democrats. You go through — you look at some of the things,” Heilemann continued. “When you hear people like Elissa Slotkin in Michigan or Tammy Baldwin in Wisconsin privately telling people that the vice president is behind in those states, that’s a good reason to worry. You look at her numbers with African American voters, her numbers with Hispanic voters, that’s a good reason to worry.”
As the November election approaches, Trump has gained support among both Black and Hispanic voters. According to The New York Times, Harris currently holds the backing of 56% of likely Hispanic voters, while Trump has 37%, a drop from the 62% that President Joe Biden received in 2020.
In 2020, Trump secured 12% of Black voters, but recent general election polls suggest he may have improved on that. An August CBS poll showed him with 17% support, while a Fox News poll indicated 26% among Black voters. A CNN poll from late September revealed that Harris leads Trump by 55% among Black voters under 60, compared to Biden’s 71% margin in 2020.
Heilemann also noted that Democrats have reasons to feel optimistic about the election.
“It is a tied race. It is uncomfortable for Democrats. It is a tied race. It’ll be a tied race all the way through to Election Day,” Heilemann said. “It’ll be maybe the closest election of our lifetimes. Everyone is going to be scared if they care about the future of the country. But don’t read polls in this kind of insane way over the course of this period of time because there’s really been nothing to learn from them for about a month and there’s not going to be for another three weeks. Race was tied, the race is tied.”
