Morning Consult Poll: Trump Holds a Historic 57-Point Lead as Iowa Kickoff Approaches

In the final poll before the official start of the 2024 GOP primary cycle with the Iowa caucuses, former President Donald Trump commands a 57-point lead over fellow Republican contenders. This marks the largest margin ever recorded in the latest Morning Consult Poll, released this Sunday, despite Trump having previously secured 69% GOP primary support in earlier polls.

  1. Trump 69%
  2. Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley 12%
  3. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis 11%
  4. Entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy 5%
  5. Former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson 1%

Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, though included in the poll, garnered less than 1% support and had officially suspended his campaign the previous week.

The Morning Consult findings exhibit the most substantial lead among recent nationwide polls integrated into the RealClearPolitics polling average, indicating Trump’s average lead to be nearly 50 points.

Additionally, for the November general election in Iowa against President Joe Biden, Morning Consult reports Trump securing 58% support, marking an 8-point increase from his 50% support in November.

“DeSantis is the second choice of 41% of potential GOP primary voters who are supporting Trump, followed by 24% who would back Ramaswamy and 15% who would back Haley,” according to Morning Consult polling analyst Eli Yokley. “Over a third of potential Republican primary voters who do not support Trump as their first choice said he is their second choice, followed by 21% who said DeSantis and 17% who said Haley.”

Also, “17% of Trump supporters said they do not know where their loyalties would fall if Trump weren’t in the race, compared with 11% of those backing someone other than him,” Yokley said.

Morning Consult surveyed 3,926 potential Republican primary voters from January 11 to 13. The results carry a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points.