In 2020, former President Donald Trump received more than 74 million votes—the highest number ever for a Republican candidate—though it was insufficient to win the popular vote or the Electoral College.
Trump’s loss to President Joe Biden continues to be a key issue for him and many of his supporters, driving ongoing allegations of voter fraud.
As Trump now competes against Vice President Kamala Harris, polls indicate a close race, with the possibility of delays in confirming a winner on election night. Here’s an overview of the major factors that could influence the outcome:
- Ground Game: Trump’s Risky Outsourcing Strategy
The Trump campaign has largely shifted its voter mobilization efforts to groups such as Turning Point Action, led by Charlie Kirk, and Elon Musk’s America PAC. While both Kirk and Musk are strong supporters, neither has previously led a national voter turnout effort of this magnitude.
Growing concerns within the GOP focus on the absence of traditional field offices and on data accuracy, a critical factor in tight races. Nine sources linked to Musk’s PAC reported issues, including faulty data, which could jeopardize Trump’s performance in key battleground states.
- Cracks in the “Blue Wall”
Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin—historically Democratic strongholds—flipped to Trump in 2016 before returning to Biden in 2020.
Now, both Trump and Harris are concentrating on these “blue wall” states, along with Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina.
Trump’s running mate, Sen. JD Vance, is actively campaigning in these states, using his Ohio roots to connect with Midwest voters. Trump himself is set to hold a final rally in Grand Rapids, Michigan, though last-minute stops in less-likely states like New Mexico and Virginia may draw scrutiny if focus is needed in Wisconsin or Pennsylvania.
- Will Haley’s Supporters Shift to Trump?
Moderate Republicans and independents who backed Nikki Haley during the primaries form a vital voting bloc.
Harris has reached out to these voters, securing endorsements from notable Republicans, including former Vice President Dick Cheney, his daughter Liz Cheney, and former California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger.
- Harris Reaches Toward the Center with Key Endorsements
Positioning herself to attract centrist voters, Harris has garnered endorsements from prominent Republicans and emphasized uniting a divided nation.
Her coalition includes former GOP leaders who oppose Trump’s style, signaling to independents and moderates that her administration would focus on stability and inclusion.
- Final Events Highlight Differences
Trump’s strategy of energizing his base with large rallies may help drive turnout, but his limited outreach to moderates stands in contrast to Harris’s focus on independents.
While Trump plans a closing rally in Grand Rapids, mirroring his 2016 and 2020 campaigns, Harris is concentrating on swing-state voters and hosting smaller town halls aimed at moderates.
The race remains close, with both candidates working to win over voters in the final days. Attention now shifts to key battleground states, which may ultimately determine the outcome.
