The outcome of the 2024 presidential election, as well as control of the U.S. House and Senate, may ultimately hinge on how Michigan voters cast their ballots in this crucial battleground state.
With 15 electoral votes, Michigan is a key target for both former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris. Alongside the presidential race, Michigan voters are also weighing in on critical House races and a high-stakes Senate contest, where Republican Mike Rogers faces Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin for an open seat.
Here’s a comprehensive look at Michigan’s pivotal races.
Polls have shown a close race between Trump and Harris in Michigan since Harris effectively became the Democratic nominee in late July. While Harris held a lead of up to 2.4 points in some polls, Trump reclaimed a narrow edge in October, according to the RealClearPolitics average. With just a week left, the two are neck-and-neck in Michigan.
Democratic candidates have dominated Michigan in recent elections, winning seven of the last eight cycles. Trump’s 2016 win over Hillary Clinton remains the only Republican presidential victory in Michigan since 1992.
Both candidates and their running mates have campaigned intensively across Michigan. Trump, in particular, has centered his Michigan stops on economic themes, pledging to revive the state’s car manufacturing legacy.
At a recent speech to the Detroit Economic Club, Trump said his proposed tax deduction on car payments would “revolutionize” the industry and “boost domestic auto production.” He added that the plan would “make car ownership far more affordable for millions of working families.” Additionally, Trump has promised to repeal the Biden-Harris administration’s electric vehicle mandate.
Harris has positioned herself as a candidate for unity in Michigan, enlisting support from former Republican Congresswoman Liz Cheney, who recently moderated a town hall with her. Harris has aimed to depict Trump as an extremist, even calling him a “fascist” at the town hall and urging Michiganders to consider the words of Trump’s former Joint Chiefs of Staff chairman, who described him as “fascist to the core.”
Michigan Democratic Governor Gretchen Whitmer, who was re-elected in 2022, was considered as Harris’ running mate but was ultimately passed over in favor of Minnesota Governor Tim Walz. Similar to her decision not to select Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro, Harris’ choice of Walz over Whitmer may impact her standing in Michigan, a critical swing state.
Mail-in and early voting are anticipated to play a significant role in Michigan, which has already seen a near-record number of early votes. As of October 22, over 1 million absentee ballots were cast, amounting to 16% of the state’s active voters. More than 2.2 million Michigan residents have either requested or received absentee ballots for the 2024 election, approaching the record levels seen in 2020.
With Michigan’s voter rolls listing 8.4 million registered voters—about 500,000 more than the number of voting-age residents—the state has one of the largest discrepancies in voter registration in the nation, according to Bridge Michigan.
Michigan’s Democratic Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson has indicated that final results in Michigan may take up to 24 hours after polls close.
“We do have more options to process ballots sooner than Election Day, which is where we were restricted in 2020, so I’m optimistic we could see results even sooner,” Benson said. “But I would estimate end of the day on Wednesday as the best guess on how we’ll perform.”
The top three Michigan counties to watch on Election Day are Wayne County, Oakland County, and Kent County. Wayne, the state’s most populous county, typically serves as a Democratic stronghold. A strong performance for Vice President Harris in Michigan would likely be reflected in a wide margin in Wayne County.
Kent County, known for its strong Christian community, is Michigan’s main bellwether county. Biden won Kent by 6 points in 2020, a reversal from Trump’s 3-point victory over Clinton in 2016.
Oakland County, located just north of Wayne County, has trended more Democratic over the last decade but still holds a substantial Republican presence. Biden won Oakland by 14 points in 2020, outperforming Clinton’s 8-point margin in 2016. Although Trump may not need to win Oakland County to take Michigan, he will likely need numbers closer to his 2016 performance.
Beyond these counties, Michigan also has a significant demographic of Muslim voters, many of whom have voiced frustration with the Democratic Party. Concentrated in Dearborn and Hamtramck, Michigan’s large Muslim population has traditionally supported Democrats. However, due to current tensions in the Middle East, some Muslim leaders have publicly opposed Biden-Harris administration policies. Harris met with Dearborn Mayor Abdullah Hammoud over the summer to address these concerns, but some Muslim leaders, including Hamtramck Mayor Amer Ghalib, have endorsed Trump. According to 2020 census data, Michigan’s Muslim population is approximately 250,000—more than Biden’s 2020 margin of victory in the state.
Wayne County’s ballot counting drew significant attention in 2020. Two Republican members of the Wayne County Board of Canvassers initially blocked the certification of results due to poll book discrepancies but reversed their decision after pushback from local Democratic leaders. Conservatives also criticized Wayne County officials for the late-night counting of absentee ballots, many of which favored Biden and gave him a lead in Michigan.
Earlier this year, the Republican National Committee sued Michigan Democratic Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson over inflated voter rolls and other election-related concerns. Benson’s office dismissed these claims, arguing that the lawsuits were designed to challenge the election results if unfavorable to the Republicans.
Michigan’s Senate race between Rogers and Slotkin, along with several closely contested House races, could play a crucial role in determining control of Congress. Slotkin, a Democratic congresswoman, currently leads Rogers by 3 points in the Senate race polling average, according to RealClearPolitics. Notably, Republicans have not held a Michigan Senate seat since 2000.
In Michigan’s U.S. House races, two seats held by Democrats and one by a Republican are classified as “toss-ups” by Decision Desk HQ. Republicans aim to capture the 7th District—Slotkin’s current seat—and the 8th District, where Democratic Rep. Dan Kildee is retiring. Meanwhile, Democrats are targeting the 10th District seat held by Republican John James.
