Private polling from Harris’s campaign indicates that Vice President Kamala Harris is in serious trouble, according to political analyst Mark Halperin on The Morning Meeting with Sean Spicer and Dan Turrentine.
Although a New York Times poll shows Harris leading by three points nationally, Halperin views her support as unstable.
He pointed out that in key states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan, her polling numbers have declined. Halperin noted a Wall Street Journal report revealing that Sen. Tammy Baldwin’s (D-WI) campaign shared negative polling, suggesting wider repercussions for Democratic candidates in Senate races tied to Harris’s performance.
Halperin concluded that Harris faces significant challenges in several battleground states, complicating her path to victory.
Can you win a short campaign with an untested candidate? And what I’m telling you is happening in private polling is she’s got a problem … So the new New York Times poll shows her up three nationally. We all know that three is like the bubble point, right? If she’s up three, she’s got a chance to win the Electoral College, but they’d rather be at four, and they don’t want to be at two. So three is right at the bubble. I’m not saying this Times poll’s right. But it’s in line with international polls … Wall Street Journal has a story about Democrats really worried about the three Rust Belt states. We all know from our contacts in both campaigns that Pennsylvania is tough for her right now. And with that Pennsylvania, there are paths, but there aren’t many. There’s no path with that Wisconsin. So you see here, Tammy Baldwin’s Senate campaign poll shows Harris down three in Wisconsin. We all said yesterday, Wisconsin and Michigan are looking worse for Harris than before. Baldwin has Harris down three … Why is the Baldwin campaign sharing its polling with the Wall Street Journal? Good question.
If you want to go watch MSNBC primetime and hear how great things are going for the Harris campaign, you’re welcome to do that. But if you want to understand what’s actually happening, we’re here to tell you. I just saw some new private polling today that’s very robust private polling. She’s in a lot of trouble. Here’s how I framed it this morning in my newsletter: The conversation I’m having with with Trump people and Democrats with data are extremely bullish on Trump’s chances in the last 48 hours, extremely bullish. You think of the seven battleground states, which ones is Harris in danger of losing? I would say Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, North Carolina and Georgia. I’m not saying she’ll lose all six, but she’s in danger. The only one that the Democrats say she’s not in danger of losing is the one I never say the name of because I can’t pronounce it, but it’s where Las Vegas is, right? You guys agree with me. She could lose any of those six, right? I mean, she could lose all seven, but Democrats will tell you they’re worried about those six, they’re less worried about the seventh. I don’t know any Trump person who says they’re worried about losing any of the seven. They don’t think they’re the favorite in Michigan and Wisconsin, but they’re not worried about losing them. You don’t hear from them, ‘Oh my goodness.’ What you hear is we’re moving up. What the three of us are hearing, we’re moving up in those two and we’re going to win. We’re going to win at the three sunbelt states. And we’re stronger in Pennsylvania than she is. That to me, if the whole thing’s about the Electoral College, you take any of the — any of the Sun or the Rust Belt states away from her, it’s very difficult for her to win, very difficult. It’s not mathematically impossible, but it probably won’t happen if she loses any of them. Could she replace Pennsylvania with either Georgia or North Carolina and then one other of the Sunbelt state? If she wins, if she loses Pennsylvania and she wins either Georgia or North Carolina, then she just needs one of the other three and that’s not impossible. But what I’m telling you today is, things are not moving right for her.
HALPERIN: Private polling shows Kamala Harris is in a lot of trouble
— Election Wizard (@ElectionWiz) October 9, 2024
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