Several Republican candidates in key Senate battleground states are trailing behind former President Donald Trump’s polling figures. However, experts told the Daily Caller News Foundation that the party still has a chance to secure a majority.
While the polling data raises concerns in states like Arizona and Michigan, experts suggest that GOP Senate hopefuls may be struggling due to challenges such as lower name recognition and inadequate campaign funding. Nevertheless, widespread dissatisfaction with the current political and economic situation could provide Republicans with the opportunity they need to reclaim control of the Senate.
“A lot of times the Republican candidate just isn’t as well known,” Jon McHenry, a GOP polling analyst and vice president at North Star Opinion Research, told the DCNF. “The challengers aren’t going to have the same name ID that Trump has.”
“We’re still a month away from Election Day,” McHenry continued. “There’s still plenty of time to close the gap.”
According to RealClearPolling averages and FiveThirtyEight projections, Trump leads Vice President Kamala Harris by 16.6 points in Montana, while Republican Senate candidate Tim Sheehy has a 6.7 point edge over Democratic incumbent Sen. Jon Tester. In Texas, Trump is ahead of Harris by 5.2 points, and Republican Sen. Ted Cruz holds a comparable five point lead against Democratic Rep. Colin Allred.
“The Montana Senate race looks very good for Republicans,” McHenry told the DCNF. “Tester is a little bit like a cockroach, in that they’re almost impossible to kill. He’s won races he was supposed to lose before. But eventually, cockroaches die, right?”
In the Sun Belt states, Trump is polling 1.4 points ahead of Harris in Arizona, while he trails the Democratic candidate by 1.1 points in Nevada, according to RealClearPolling averages. Meanwhile, Arizona GOP Senate candidate Kari Lake is 7.8 points behind Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego, and Republican Senate candidate Sam Brown is 8.5 points behind Democratic incumbent Sen. Jacky Rosen.
“Trump’s brand is more popular than the Republican brand,” Dheeraj Chand, a Democratic strategist, told the DCNF. “That’s a huge deal. There are more people who are Trump voters than there are Republican voters.”
Chand noted that the polling gap can be partly attributed to differences in voter enthusiasm and the effectiveness of party “machinery.”
“A poll measures what somebody is willing to do if given the opportunity,” Chand told the DCNF. “But, there’s still the whole execution aspect. With the brokenness of the RNC and the brokenness of the party committees, they don’t have the ability to execute. I just don’t think the machinery exists to make it happen.”
Polling in the Rust Belt shows a similar trend, with Trump trailing Harris by just 0.8 points in Wisconsin, while Republican Senate candidate Eric Hovde faces a 3.5 point deficit against Democratic incumbent Sen. Tammy Baldwin, according to RealClearPolling averages. In Michigan, Harris leads Trump by 0.7 points, and Republican Senate candidate Mike Rogers is behind Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin by three points.
“Donald Trump is providing the foundation for Republican Senate challengers to win just like Reagan did in 1980,” John McLaughlin, a Trump campaign pollster and CEO of McLaughlin & Associates, told the DCNF. “As Trump grinds ahead in the battleground states, his voters are solid for Republican challengers Dave McCormick, Kari Lake, Eric Hovde, Mike Rogers and Sam Brown.”
“Voters are tired of inflation, open borders, crime, more taxes and they’re worried about war,” McLaughlin told the DCNF. “Just as Joe Biden and Harris have failed, so will their Senate supporters.”
While Trump is “providing the foundation,” candidates like Hovde and Rogers continue to “gain momentum.”
“Eric Hovde continues to gain momentum and even Democrat internal polls are showing a jump ball race,” Zach Bannon, a spokesman for Hovde, told the DCNF. “The people of Wisconsin are ready for change and Eric Hovde is going to win.
“This is the closest race in the nation and a prime pickup opportunity for Republicans,” Chris Gustafson, communications director for Rogers for Senate, told the DCNF. “Mike Rogers is fighting hard to earn the votes of Michiganders and sharing his plan to help families who are living paycheck to paycheck under Slotkin and Harris.”
In Pennsylvania, the battleground state with the most electoral votes, Trump and Harris are in a dead heat, according to RealClearPolling averages. However, the race is not as close for Senate candidates, with Republican Dave McCormick trailing Democratic incumbent Sen. Bob Casey by four points.
“I think the more structural explanation is that Donald Trump simply has a broader political base than many of the challengers,” Len Foxwell, a Democratic strategist based out of Maryland, told the DCNF. “Donald Trump presents himself as the outsider fighting the insiders. That not only allows him to maintain his political base, fueled largely by grievances against the government status quo, but also allows him to pluck off some disaffected Democrats who may not agree with him on every policy issue, but also feel as if the Washington establishment is a closed door society for which they don’t have the secret handshake.”
“At the same time, these Republican Senate candidates are simply being outspent by their democratic counterparts, and in most cases, by considerable margins,” Foxwell continued.
As of July 31, the Democratic National Committee (DNC) has raised $385 million, compared to $331 million for the Republican National Committee (RNC), according to OpenSecrets. Additionally, the DNC has outspent the RNC by approximately $100 million in the 2024 election, including transfers to other political committees.
Despite these challenges, Foxwell believes that the current political and economic landscape could benefit GOP candidates.
“If I’m a Democrat running anywhere right now, I am terrified of the recent economic and fiscal implications,” Foxwell told the DCNF. “That more than anything is keeping me up at night.”
“It’s a very fluid environment in which these candidates are running for office,” Foxwell told the DCNF. “To the extent that Republican candidates can tie all of these factors together to paint a world of chaos under Democratic leadership and paint themselves as a mor.
